End of the Nuclear Dream

End of the Nuclear Dream and Efficiency Improvements

In the immediate post Second World War period nuclear power seemed to offer the world the possibility of almost unlimited cheap electricity. Even though construction costs for nuclear power stations were high, it was believed that over time they would guarantee security of supply for electricity and reduce reliance on the development of hydrocarbon resources and in particular imports from politically sensitive countries.

However, during the 1960s political opposition to nuclear power grew. In particular, it was safety and environmental concerns that spurred protests. By the time of the disasters at Three Mile Island in the United States in 1979 and Chernobyl in the Ukraine in 1986 it had become politically impossible to construct new nuclear facilities in the developed world.

At the Three Mile Island plant, located near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, a faulty valve caused a leakage of radioactive water into the building housing the reactor. The incident was well contained and controlled but the damage to the nuclear industry in the eyes of the public was catastrophic.
The Chernobyl incident was far more serious. The operators of the nuclear reactor lost control and the reactor was consumed in a partial nuclear meltdown. Clouds of radioactive emissions were carried across Europe by strong winds. Again, this was a major catastrophe.
The scale of the nuclear retreat can be seen in this chart showing the effect of nuclear decommissioning in Europe. The only exception to this trend amongst the major European countries is in France, where the share of electricity generated by the nuclear industry will still be above 60 per cent in 2020.


Source: Energy Intelligence

Technological improvements have made a major impact on energy usage thus limiting environmental damage. Better technology has dramatically improved the productivity of gas as a fuel in the power generation sector. Similarly it is technology that is changing the economics of long distance gas transportation. A development like this is fundamental because it means that natural gas can become an internationally traded fuel that does not depend on extensive pipeline networks. That in turn will change the pattern and scale of supply and demand. Some huge changes lie ahead as a result of these developments. China, for example, will be able to import natural gas from Asia, the Middle East and Russia, and in doing so offset or displace coal as a source of power generation. This could have an important impact on efforts to curb the emission of greenhouse gases in fast growing countries such as China and India.

There will also be a key role for technology in improving the internal combustion engine. While it is thought that there are unlikely to be major advances in market share from alternative transport fuels in the next few decades, dramatic advances are taking place to improve the efficiency and environmental performance of current processes. The Ford Motor Company has introduced engines 50 per cent cleaner than the EU minimum emissions standards. Leaner burning gasoline direct injection engines with advanced exhaust systems are also considered to have great potential. At the same time, technology is improving fuels. Most major oil companies anticipate the effective elimination of sulphur from motor fuels. The European motor industry has committed itself to reduce CO2 emissions on new vehicles by 25 per cent by 2008 as part of the efforts to comply with the Kyoto Protocol.