Consumption

Electricity consumption is practically synonymous with modern life in the industrialised world. Our communications, transport, food supplies, and most amenities of contemporary homes, offices and factories depend on a reliable supply of electrical power.
As more countries industrialise, ever greater amounts of power are consumed.

World-wide energy consumption has multiplied twenty-five fold since the last century. Average per capita consumption of electricity is about ten times higher in industrial countries than in the developing world. But with the economies in many developing nations now expanding rapidly, electricity demand in the "South" is expected to grow at over 5% annually during the next fifteen years. Meeting this demand will require a dramatic rise in electricity output.  The combination of these trends, together with the continuing reliance on fossil fuels for primary energy, also mean that world-wide emissions of greenhouse gases will continue to rise. Even with stringent reduction measures, current projections do not show a levelling off of emissions until about 2050.

World-wide, consumption of electricity generated from nuclear power is expected to increase from 2,521 billion kilowatt-hours in 2002 to 2,737 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025. Until very recently, nuclear electricity consumption was expected to decline sharply by the end of the forecast. The prospects for nuclear power have been reassessed, however, in light of the higher capacity utilisation rates reported for many existing nuclear facilities and the expectation that fewer retirements of existing plants will occur than previously projected. Further, extensions of operating licences for nuclear power plants are expected to be granted among the countries of the industrialised world, slowing the decline in nuclear generation. In many of the industrialised countries extending the operating life of a nuclear power plant is a decision left primarily to the owner and thus is essentially a question of economic viability.

The highest growth in nuclear generation is projected for the developing world, where consumption of electricity from nuclear power is projected to increase by 4.1 percent per year between 2001 and 2025. In particular, developing Asia is expected to see the greatest expansion in new nuclear generating capacity. As of February 2003 the nations of developing Asia accounted for 17 of the 35 reactors under construction world-wide, including 8 in India, 4 in China, 2 each in South Korea and Taiwan, and 1 in North Korea, accounting for 12 of the 30 gigawatts then under construction.

Consumption of electricity from hydropower and other renewable energy sources is projected to grow by 1.9 percent annually. With fossil fuel prices projected to remain relatively low, renewable energy sources are not expected to be widely competitive, and the renewable share of total energy use is not expected to increase. Over the 2001-2025 forecast horizon, renewables maintain their share of total energy consumption at 8 percent. Moreover, despite the high rates of growth projected for alternative renewable energy sources, such as wind power in Western Europe and biomass and geothermal power in the United States, much of the growth in renewable energy sources will result from large scale hydroelectric power projects in the developing world, particularly among the nations of developing Asia. China, India, Malaysia, and Vietnam are already constructing, or have plans to construct, ambitious hydroelectric projects over the projected period.

Load factors

Load factors indicate how efficiently a customer is using peak demand.  When forecasting the usage of electricity in existing or proposed power systems, two variables must be taken into account, the load factor and time period.  In order to ascertain the load factor, peak usage and energy are the necessary determinants.  A peak forecast is an indication of the capacity needs of a system whilst the energy forecast is an indication of the amount of energy that will be using during a particular period of time:

Load Factor= energy (kW.h per month) / peak demand (kW * hrs/month)

A high load factor means power usage is relatively constant. A low load factor shows that occasionally a high demand is set. To service that peak, capacity must sit idle for long periods, thereby imposing higher costs on the system. Electricity charges tend to be designed so that customers with a high load factor are charged less overall per kW.h.